Frederick Gaudreau vs Matt Duchene
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Duchene 51.6% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 82.9%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 52.0%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Gaudreau
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Gaudreau
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Gaudreau
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (389)
51.2% (324)
-6.2%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
60.4% (53)
-28.6%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (125)
16.7% (6)
+20.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (427).
Gaudreau shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Duchene
Home
42.6% (277)
51.6% (182)
Away
42.9% (259)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Gaudreau
Duchene
P1
43.8%
49.6%
P2
44.8%
56.2%
P3
39.2%
48.6%
Final 5 min
46.7%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:16 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |