Frederick Gaudreau vs Mavrik Bourque
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Bourque 46.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 62.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 77.5%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 54.3%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Gaudreau
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Gaudreau
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
1
Gaudreau
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (389)
47.0% (181)
-2.0%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
25.0% (16)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (125)
42.9% (7)
-5.3%
On power play, Gaudreau has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Gaudreau shoots right. Bourque is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Bourque
Home
42.6% (277)
41.9% (105)
Away
42.9% (259)
48.5% (99)
By Period
Gaudreau
Bourque
P1
43.8%
39.7%
P2
44.8%
39.3%
P3
39.2%
52.9%
Final 5 min
46.7%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |