Frederick Gaudreau vs Mavrik Bourque
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 48.6% vs Bourque 46.4% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 54.3%
Defensive zone
Bourque 53.5%
Neutral zone
Bourque 55.4%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Gaudreau
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Gaudreau
Bourque
Last 6: Gaudreau 2-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
2
Gaudreau
Bourque
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
2
1
Gaudreau
Bourque
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
1
Gaudreau
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,745)
46.7% (508)
+2.0%
Power Play
53.9% (219)
27.3% (22)
+26.6%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (789)
42.9% (28)
+3.7%
On power play, Gaudreau has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Gaudreau is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,280).
Gaudreau shoots right. Bourque is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (137).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Bourque
Home
49.2% (2,437)
47.3% (262)
Away
47.8% (2,316)
44.3% (296)
By Period
Gaudreau
Bourque
P1
49.7%
42.4%
P2
47.3%
42.9%
P3
49.1%
50.7%
OT
36.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.6%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |