Frederick Gaudreau vs Mavrik Bourque
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 48.4% vs Bourque 47.1% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 50.2%
Defensive zone
Bourque 53.0%
Neutral zone
Bourque 51.8%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Gaudreau
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Gaudreau
Bourque
Last 5: Gaudreau 2-3 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
2
Gaudreau
Bourque
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
2
1
Gaudreau
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (858)
46.7% (321)
+2.5%
Power Play
39.0% (41)
33.3% (6)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (198)
42.9% (21)
+3.1%
On power play, Gaudreau has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Gaudreau is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (278).
Gaudreau shoots right. Bourque is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Bourque
Home
47.1% (546)
51.0% (157)
Away
49.4% (551)
42.4% (191)
By Period
Gaudreau
Bourque
P1
46.8%
44.2%
P2
46.8%
44.7%
P3
51.1%
49.6%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
59.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.2%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |