Frederick Gaudreau vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 89.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 69.9%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 70.9%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Gaudreau
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Gaudreau
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (389)
47.6% (231)
-2.6%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
83.3% (12)
-51.5%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (125)
33.3% (21)
+4.3%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +51.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (427).
Gaudreau shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
42.6% (277)
51.2% (164)
Away
42.9% (259)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Gaudreau
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
43.8%
50.0%
P2
44.8%
46.2%
P3
39.2%
49.5%
Final 5 min
46.7%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |