Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Grant wins 56.3% vs right-shot opponents — Vilardi shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 50.9% vs Vilardi 46.5% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 56.2%
Defensive zone
Grant 82.3%
Neutral zone
Grant 72.0%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Grant
Vilardi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Grant
Vilardi
Last 8: Grant 5-3 Vilardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Grant
Vilardi
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
3
1
Grant
Vilardi
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Grant
Vilardi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Vilardi
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (415)
45.2% (564)
+9.3%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
53.3% (45)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (137)
48.0% (25)
-6.4%
On power play, Vilardi has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vilardi shoots right. Grant is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Grant shoots left. Vilardi is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Grant
Vilardi
Home
51.5% (266)
47.3% (330)
Away
50.7% (300)
44.4% (304)
By Period
Grant
Vilardi
P1
48.3%
49.0%
P2
52.2%
43.2%
P3
52.8%
45.7%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.1%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
51.1%
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Derek Grant |