Scouting Report
Gabriel Vilardi holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Vilardi wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.9% vs Donato 44.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 53.9%
Defensive zone
Vilardi 53.7%
Neutral zone
Donato 50.5%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Vilardi
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Vilardi
Donato
Last 9: Vilardi 4-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Vilardi
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Vilardi
Donato
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vilardi
3
2
Vilardi
Donato
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,053)
44.2% (1,179)
+1.6%
Power Play
51.3% (195)
46.3% (246)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (27)
36.4% (11)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Vilardi has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Vilardi is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Vilardi shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Donato
Home
47.2% (659)
47.2% (743)
Away
46.1% (616)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Vilardi
Donato
P1
49.6%
43.4%
P2
43.7%
45.1%
P3
46.8%
44.4%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
46.7%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:15 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 11:41 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |