Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.0% vs 51.9%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McKegg wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 50.8% vs Dowd 51.6% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 63.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.1%
Neutral zone
McKegg 55.5%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
McKegg
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McKegg
Dowd
Last 7: McKegg 3-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McKegg
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
1
0
McKegg
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
McKegg
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (281)
51.2% (381)
+0.4%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
100.0% (2)
-75.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
53.9% (89)
-53.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McKegg is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (88).
McKegg shoots left. Dowd is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
McKegg
Dowd
Home
51.1% (133)
54.6% (218)
Away
51.0% (153)
49.6% (254)
By Period
McKegg
Dowd
P1
48.9%
50.6%
P2
48.9%
55.1%
P3
54.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
51.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2019 | 3 | 02:24 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 1 | 05:13 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 3 | 02:22 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 1 | 02:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |