Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lapierre wins 35.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 42.7% vs Frost 55.7% (-16.5%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 60.4%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 72.0%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 57.0%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Lapierre
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lapierre
Frost
Last 10: Lapierre 4-6 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Lapierre
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
4
1
Lapierre
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
5
Lapierre
Frost
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
39.9% (248)
54.9% (701)
-15.0%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
60.8% (166)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
100.0% (5)
-100.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lapierre is 35.1% vs left-shot opponents (174).
Lapierre shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Frost
Home
44.2% (138)
56.0% (443)
Away
34.5% (116)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Lapierre
Frost
P1
54.2%
58.9%
P2
39.1%
55.3%
P3
25.3%
54.0%
Final 5 min
37.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
40.0%▬
39.5%
39.8%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 11:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 12:08 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 09:13 | Neutral | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |