Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Compher on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 39.3% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Compher 51.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 71.7%
Defensive zone
McMichael 73.4%
Neutral zone
McMichael 73.3%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
McMichael
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McMichael
Compher
Last 5: McMichael 1-4 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
2
McMichael
Compher
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
0
1
McMichael
Compher
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
0
1
McMichael
Compher
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
53.9% (757)
-11.5%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
54.8% (31)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
35.6% (90)
+5.0%
On even strength, Compher has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. McMichael is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (183).
McMichael shoots left. Compher is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
McMichael
Compher
Home
43.0% (298)
52.4% (429)
Away
42.5% (252)
51.7% (449)
By Period
McMichael
Compher
P1
46.5%
56.0%
P2
41.1%
50.0%
P3
41.3%
50.6%
Final 5 min
44.0%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:05 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 01:05 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |