Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.5% vs Duchene 52.1% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.2%
Defensive zone
Miller 78.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Miller
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Miller
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Miller
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (589)
53.9% (193)
+1.8%
Power Play
60.9% (138)
49.2% (65)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (159)
100.0% (1)
-52.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Miller is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Miller shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Miller
Duchene
Home
56.1% (440)
54.9% (113)
Away
53.8% (446)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Miller
Duchene
P1
52.3%
54.9%
P2
54.7%
52.7%
P3
57.2%
51.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2023 | OT | 02:07 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |