Scouting Report
Jack Drury holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Drury wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drury 54.6% vs Cates 45.8% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drury 56.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 71.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Drury
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Drury
Cates
Last 7: Drury 3-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Drury
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drury
2
0
Drury
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Drury
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drury
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (590)
44.3% (271)
+10.4%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
77.8% (18)
-23.1%
Penalty Kill
71.4% (21)
31.7% (41)
+39.7%
On penalty kill, Drury has a +39.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Drury is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Drury shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Drury
Cates
Home
56.7% (358)
52.0% (148)
Away
53.6% (306)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Drury
Cates
P1
57.3%
42.7%
P2
57.6%
42.9%
P3
51.1%
48.5%
Final 5 min
53.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drury
64.0%▲
56.0%
55.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 02:27 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Jack Drury |