Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 49.0%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 48.8% vs Dowd 49.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finley 70.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Finley
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Finley
Dowd
Last 6: Finley 0-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (239)
51.7% (644)
-4.4%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
0.0% (2)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
41.6% (221)
+16.1%
On power play, Finley has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Finley is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Finley shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Finley
Dowd
Home
50.0% (162)
48.6% (451)
Away
46.2% (117)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Finley
Dowd
P1
53.2%
49.1%
P2
44.6%
47.3%
P3
49.0%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |