Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 49.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finley 88.7%
Defensive zone
Finley 52.6%
Neutral zone
Finley 62.4%
Result
Jack Finley favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Finley
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Finley
Dowd
Last 6: Finley 0-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (244)
52.4% (6,009)
-4.9%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
56.1% (164)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
44.1% (1,635)
+13.6%
On penalty kill, Finley has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Finley is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Finley shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Finley
Dowd
Home
50.0% (162)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
46.7% (122)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Finley
Dowd
P1
53.2%
51.7%
P2
44.6%
50.4%
P3
49.5%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |