Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 48.1% vs Dowd 49.5% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finley 81.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.3%
Neutral zone
Finley 57.5%
Result
Jack Finley favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Finley
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Finley
Dowd
Last 6: Finley 0-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (147)
53.4% (485)
-5.1%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
0.0% (2)
+37.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
39.8% (186)
-39.8%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +39.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Finley is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Finley shoots right. Dowd is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Home / Away
Finley
Dowd
Home
47.6% (105)
48.5% (307)
Away
45.3% (53)
50.3% (366)
By Period
Finley
Dowd
P1
54.2%
50.7%
P2
43.1%
49.1%
P3
44.2%
49.6%
Final 5 min
53.1%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
48.0%▬
47.2%
46.8%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |