Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Finley wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 48.8% vs Monahan 52.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 50.6%
Defensive zone
Finley 79.7%
Neutral zone
Finley 60.4%
Result
Jack Finley favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Finley
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Finley
Monahan
Last 6: Finley 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Finley
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (239)
53.2% (823)
-5.9%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
55.3% (159)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
48.4% (95)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Finley has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Finley is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Finley shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Finley
Monahan
Home
50.0% (162)
54.6% (529)
Away
46.2% (117)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Finley
Monahan
P1
53.2%
49.0%
P2
44.6%
55.4%
P3
49.0%
53.6%
OT
0.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jack Finley |