Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Finley wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 49.0% vs Monahan 51.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 62.5%
Defensive zone
Finley 82.4%
Neutral zone
Finley 58.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Finley
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Finley
Monahan
Last 6: Finley 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Finley
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (244)
51.1% (11,356)
-3.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
53.7% (2,580)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
46.0% (766)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Finley has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Finley is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Finley shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Finley
Monahan
Home
50.0% (162)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
46.7% (122)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Finley
Monahan
P1
53.2%
50.9%
P2
44.6%
51.7%
P3
49.5%
51.0%
OT
0.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jack Finley |