Scouting Report
Chris Wagner holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Wagner on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Wagner wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 50.8% vs Hughes 37.4% (+16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wagner 50.2%
Defensive zone
Wagner 90.9%
Neutral zone
Wagner 82.4%
Result
Chris Wagner favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Wagner
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Wagner
Hughes
Last 7: Wagner 5-2 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
2
Wagner
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
4
0
Wagner
Hughes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Hughes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (71)
35.7% (569)
+16.4%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
33.3% (36)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
16.7% (6)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Wagner has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Wagner is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (63).
Wagner shoots right. Hughes is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Wagner
Hughes
Home
53.8% (39)
37.8% (333)
Away
50.0% (40)
32.4% (278)
By Period
Wagner
Hughes
P1
42.1%
38.8%
P2
50.0%
28.3%
P3
62.5%
38.6%
Final 5 min
35.3%
31.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
51.9%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 17:00 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |