Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 33.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 38.0% vs Larsson 46.9% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 75.8%
Defensive zone
Larsson 73.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 52.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Hughes
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Hughes
Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Larsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
1
Hughes
Larsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
1
Hughes
Larsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
34.5% (342)
46.7% (345)
-12.2%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
61.1% (18)
-18.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
39.0% (59)
-14.0%
On power play, Larsson has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Hughes is 33.8% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Hughes shoots left. Larsson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Home / Away
Hughes
Larsson
Home
32.6% (187)
52.1% (167)
Away
36.7% (166)
42.4% (255)
By Period
Hughes
Larsson
P1
33.9%
50.0%
P2
34.2%
46.7%
P3
36.5%
42.6%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
29.7%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 1 | 14:51 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |