Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Larsson 49.5% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 85.4%
Defensive zone
Larsson 89.6%
Neutral zone
Larsson 61.8%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Hughes
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Hughes
Larsson
Last 8: Hughes 4-4 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Larsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
2
Hughes
Larsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
2
Hughes
Larsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
50.5% (4,382)
-14.5%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
47.7% (153)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
43.8% (714)
-12.8%
On even strength, Larsson has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Home / Away
Hughes
Larsson
Home
36.8% (1,670)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Hughes
Larsson
P1
36.9%
51.6%
P2
33.6%
49.7%
P3
38.1%
47.2%
OT
37.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
34.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 1 | 14:51 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 3 | 09:44 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 02:56 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |