Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +23.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Tavares 57.7% (-23.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 79.3%
Defensive zone
Hughes 65.3%
Neutral zone
Hughes 69.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Hughes
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hughes
Tavares
Last 5: Hughes 1-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Hughes
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Hughes
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
57.5% (914)
-22.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
60.5% (309)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
59.1% (22)
-25.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Hughes shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Hughes
Tavares
Home
37.4% (235)
61.0% (661)
Away
33.2% (229)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Hughes
Tavares
P1
37.1%
58.6%
P2
33.7%
57.8%
P3
34.8%
58.4%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
32.7%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |