Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Danforth on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Danforth shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Danforth 49.8% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 93.7%
Defensive zone
Hughes 90.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 86.9%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 90.8%
90.8%
9.2%
Hughes
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hughes
Danforth
Last 7: Hughes 1-6 Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Danforth
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
0
4
Hughes
Danforth
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
0
1
Hughes
Danforth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
51.8% (1,018)
-15.8%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
50.0% (36)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
40.1% (207)
-9.1%
On even strength, Danforth has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Hughes shoots left. Danforth is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (937).
Home / Away
Hughes
Danforth
Home
36.8% (1,670)
51.4% (619)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
48.3% (642)
By Period
Hughes
Danforth
P1
36.9%
49.1%
P2
33.6%
51.4%
P3
38.1%
48.3%
OT
37.5%
64.3%
Final 5 min
34.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 18:11 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |