Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +18.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.4% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Eller 53.3% (-18.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 85.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 76.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 65.6%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Hughes
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hughes
Eller
Last 6: Hughes 2-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Hughes
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Hughes
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
53.8% (865)
-18.9%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
57.1% (21)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
52.6% (137)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Hughes shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Home / Away
Hughes
Eller
Home
37.4% (235)
56.4% (486)
Away
33.2% (229)
51.2% (537)
By Period
Hughes
Eller
P1
37.1%
55.1%
P2
33.7%
55.3%
P3
34.8%
51.7%
OT
100.0%
27.3%
Final 5 min
32.7%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 13:22 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 04:18 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 17:14 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 14:27 | Neutral | Lars Eller |