Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 39.5% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.4% vs Lafferty 51.2% (-17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 61.5%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 94.2%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 88.0%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
Hughes
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Hughes
Lafferty
Last 7: Hughes 5-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
0
Hughes
Lafferty
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Hughes
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
35.7% (569)
53.5% (101)
-17.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
25.0% (4)
-8.3%
On even strength, Lafferty has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Hughes is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Hughes shoots left. Lafferty is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (75).
Home / Away
Hughes
Lafferty
Home
37.8% (333)
50.0% (62)
Away
32.4% (278)
55.8% (43)
By Period
Hughes
Lafferty
P1
38.8%
70.0%
P2
28.3%
37.8%
P3
38.6%
52.6%
Final 5 min
31.7%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 3 | 04:57 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |