Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.7% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 38.0% vs Lafferty 43.5% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 68.4%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 87.0%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 77.7%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 77.7%
22.3%
77.7%
Hughes
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Hughes
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
34.5% (342)
40.9% (232)
-6.4%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
100.0% (1)
-57.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
40.0% (30)
-15.0%
On power play, Lafferty has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Hughes is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Hughes shoots left. Lafferty is 40.4% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Home / Away
Hughes
Lafferty
Home
32.6% (187)
38.2% (123)
Away
36.7% (166)
43.6% (140)
By Period
Hughes
Lafferty
P1
33.9%
41.6%
P2
34.2%
36.7%
P3
36.5%
45.5%
Final 5 min
29.7%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
41.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:36 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 3 | 06:22 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |