Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Lafferty 50.9% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 89.9%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 66.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 75.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Hughes
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hughes
Lafferty
Last 5: Hughes 1-4 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
3
Hughes
Lafferty
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Hughes
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
52.2% (366)
-17.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
60.0% (15)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
46.2% (104)
-12.9%
On even strength, Lafferty has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Hughes is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Hughes shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Hughes
Lafferty
Home
37.4% (235)
53.1% (258)
Away
33.2% (229)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Hughes
Lafferty
P1
37.1%
52.5%
P2
33.7%
49.7%
P3
34.8%
51.3%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
32.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:28 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |