Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Kapanen 47.8% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 58.4%
Defensive zone
McBain 79.3%
Neutral zone
McBain 69.1%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
McBain
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McBain
Kapanen
Last 5: McBain 4-1 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Kapanen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
47.5% (514)
+4.6%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
55.0% (40)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
39.5% (38)
-2.5%
On even strength, McBain has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McBain shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
McBain
Kapanen
Home
52.2% (289)
47.9% (307)
Away
50.0% (316)
47.0% (285)
By Period
McBain
Kapanen
P1
52.6%
42.7%
P2
53.6%
51.4%
P3
47.1%
48.4%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Jack McBain |