Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.6% vs 47.1%). Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Kapanen 47.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 63.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 65.2%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 50.7%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
McBain
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McBain
Kapanen
Last 5: McBain 4-1 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Kapanen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (2,298)
47.2% (559)
+0.8%
Power Play
49.0% (51)
51.0% (51)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (308)
39.5% (38)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Kapanen has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. McBain is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (990).
McBain shoots left. Kapanen is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
McBain
Kapanen
Home
49.0% (1,359)
47.1% (340)
Away
44.0% (1,298)
47.1% (308)
By Period
McBain
Kapanen
P1
46.7%
42.7%
P2
47.5%
50.2%
P3
45.6%
48.2%
OT
37.5%
25.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Jack McBain |