Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). McBain wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Stamkos 54.4% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 65.2%
Defensive zone
McBain 84.9%
Neutral zone
McBain 72.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
McBain
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McBain
Stamkos
Last 8: McBain 2-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
6
McBain
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (544)
55.8% (339)
-3.8%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
53.3% (90)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
62.5% (8)
-25.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McBain shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
McBain
Stamkos
Home
52.1% (288)
53.4% (208)
Away
50.0% (316)
57.2% (229)
By Period
McBain
Stamkos
P1
52.6%
55.3%
P2
53.4%
52.5%
P3
47.1%
58.9%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
52.0%
51.0%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |