Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Roslovic wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roslovic 51.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Last 5: Roslovic 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roslovic
1
0
Roslovic
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Roslovic
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (204)
55.4% (826)
-2.9%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
57.9% (221)
-5.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roslovic is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (170).
Roslovic shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Home
49.6% (119)
55.8% (579)
Away
55.9% (102)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Roslovic
O'Reilly
P1
53.2%
57.7%
P2
53.2%
54.8%
P3
51.9%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roslovic
50.0%▼
53.0%
52.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 18:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Jack Roslovic |