Jake Evans vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Pageau 58.8% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 58.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Evans
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Pageau
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Evans
Pageau
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
59.1% (687)
-2.9%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
69.4% (36)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
60.1% (213)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Evans
Pageau
Home
55.3% (374)
57.8% (377)
Away
57.1% (317)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Evans
Pageau
P1
58.5%
54.1%
P2
55.7%
62.1%
P3
53.9%
61.8%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Jake Evans |