Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Drouin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Drouin 49.5% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 85.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.2%
Neutral zone
Drouin 52.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Evans
Drouin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Drouin
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Drouin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
0
2
Evans
Drouin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Drouin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Drouin
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
47.5% (181)
+8.7%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
56.8% (44)
+13.2%
On power play, Evans has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Drouin shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Drouin is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (89).
Home / Away
Evans
Drouin
Home
55.3% (374)
49.5% (97)
Away
57.1% (317)
49.2% (128)
By Period
Evans
Drouin
P1
58.5%
52.1%
P2
55.7%
51.5%
P3
53.9%
45.0%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 18:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |