Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Celebrini 48.9% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 58.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 85.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Evans
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Evans
Celebrini
Last 8: Evans 7-1 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
Evans
Celebrini
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Celebrini
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
Celebrini
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
48.2% (924)
+8.0%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
52.8% (108)
+17.2%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
56.0% (25)
-0.6%
On power play, Evans has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Celebrini is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Evans
Celebrini
Home
55.3% (374)
47.8% (523)
Away
57.1% (317)
49.8% (534)
By Period
Evans
Celebrini
P1
58.5%
47.8%
P2
55.7%
47.4%
P3
53.9%
51.1%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.3%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:22 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |