Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Celebrini 48.4% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Celebrini 68.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 90.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 70.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
Evans
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Evans
Celebrini
Last 10: Evans 6-4 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
3
Evans
Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
0
Evans
Celebrini
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Celebrini
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
47.2% (901)
+7.2%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
54.7% (139)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
54.5% (11)
-6.4%
On power play, Evans has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Celebrini is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Evans
Celebrini
Home
55.1% (541)
47.6% (553)
Away
50.8% (581)
49.0% (498)
By Period
Evans
Celebrini
P1
51.8%
46.6%
P2
53.3%
46.4%
P3
53.8%
51.8%
OT
38.5%
41.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |