Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Dubois 49.7% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dubois 54.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 85.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 67.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Evans
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Evans
Dubois
Last 9: Evans 6-3 Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
1
Evans
Dubois
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
1
Evans
Dubois
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Dubois
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
49.8% (1,064)
+4.6%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
46.3% (67)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
53.3% (30)
-5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Dubois is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Evans
Dubois
Home
55.1% (541)
48.3% (582)
Away
50.8% (581)
51.1% (579)
By Period
Evans
Dubois
P1
51.8%
52.0%
P2
53.3%
49.9%
P3
53.8%
46.9%
OT
38.5%
64.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.9%
Dubois
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 19:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |