Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lucchini wins 38.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lucchini 46.8% vs Hayes 56.3% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lucchini 76.7%
Defensive zone
Lucchini 75.1%
Neutral zone
Lucchini 78.2%
Result
Jake Lucchini favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Lucchini
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Lucchini
Hayes
Last 5: Lucchini 0-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Lucchini
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
3
Lucchini
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lucchini
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (96)
56.6% (724)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
65.7% (35)
-37.1%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lucchini is 38.6% vs left-shot opponents (57).
Lucchini shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Lucchini
Hayes
Home
37.5% (56)
58.0% (405)
Away
51.1% (47)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Lucchini
Hayes
P1
20.8%
54.7%
P2
51.2%
55.7%
P3
50.0%
60.2%
Final 5 min
38.9%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lucchini
38.0%▼
43.0%
43.7%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:19 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:07 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 08:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |