Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lucchini wins 38.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lucchini 46.4% vs Hayes 47.7% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lucchini 59.2%
Defensive zone
Lucchini 55.3%
Neutral zone
Lucchini 59.4%
Result
Jake Lucchini favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Lucchini
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Lucchini
Hayes
Last 5: Lucchini 0-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Lucchini
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
3
Lucchini
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lucchini
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (100)
47.5% (6,708)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
45.3% (697)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lucchini is 38.3% vs left-shot opponents (60).
Lucchini shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Lucchini
Hayes
Home
36.2% (58)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
51.0% (49)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Lucchini
Hayes
P1
23.1%
47.5%
P2
48.8%
47.6%
P3
50.0%
47.9%
Final 5 min
36.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lucchini
38.0%▼
43.0%
43.0%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:19 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:07 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 08:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |