Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.0% vs 55.9%). Benn wins 58.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Benn 55.0% vs Hertl 55.4% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.7%
Defensive zone
Benn 54.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.1%
Result
Jamie Benn favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Benn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Benn
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
1
0
Benn
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Benn
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Benn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (365)
54.1% (717)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.8% (132)
61.9% (210)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (32)
58.1% (31)
-5.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Benn is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Benn shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Benn
Hertl
Home
57.3% (267)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.6% (262)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Benn
Hertl
P1
54.3%
57.1%
P2
55.7%
54.0%
P3
58.1%
56.6%
Final 5 min
59.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
56.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |