Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Harkins wins 56.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 50.9% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 52.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 92.1%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 72.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 82.1%
17.9%
82.1%
Harkins
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Harkins
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
0
Harkins
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
0
Harkins
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (173)
61.2% (340)
-11.5%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
83.3% (6)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
56.0% (141)
+10.7%
On even strength, Kastelic has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Harkins is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Harkins shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Harkins
Kastelic
Home
55.3% (85)
60.9% (233)
Away
48.0% (100)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Harkins
Kastelic
P1
71.4%
58.6%
P2
41.8%
58.7%
P3
43.5%
63.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
51.4%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 16:16 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | Jansen Harkins |