Scouting Report
Jansen Harkins holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Harkins wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 52.4% vs Roy 48.4% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 53.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 55.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 51.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Harkins
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Harkins
Roy
Last 6: Harkins 3-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Harkins
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Harkins
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (403)
48.7% (3,719)
+2.4%
Power Play
80.0% (10)
49.5% (283)
+30.5%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (69)
45.5% (477)
+13.9%
On power play, Harkins has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Harkins is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Harkins shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Harkins
Roy
Home
55.7% (244)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
50.0% (238)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Harkins
Roy
P1
60.8%
50.8%
P2
45.1%
46.3%
P3
53.1%
48.1%
Final 5 min
50.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 01:23 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:43 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |