Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 50.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Harkins 55.3%
Defensive zone
Harkins 80.7%
Neutral zone
Harkins 70.9%
Result
Jansen Harkins favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Harkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Harkins
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Harkins
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Harkins
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (173)
58.1% (823)
-8.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
56.2% (265)
+21.6%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
62.9% (35)
+3.8%
On power play, Harkins has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Harkins is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Harkins shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Harkins
Hertl
Home
55.3% (85)
59.7% (561)
Away
48.0% (100)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Harkins
Hertl
P1
71.4%
51.6%
P2
41.8%
63.8%
P3
43.5%
58.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
51.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |