Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 52.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.8%
Defensive zone
Harkins 74.3%
Neutral zone
Harkins 64.3%
Result
Jansen Harkins favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Harkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Harkins
Hertl
Last 9: Harkins 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Harkins
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Harkins
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Harkins
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (403)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.7%
Power Play
80.0% (10)
59.3% (1,975)
+20.7%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (69)
46.3% (806)
+13.1%
On power play, Harkins has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Harkins is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (316).
Harkins shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Harkins
Hertl
Home
55.7% (244)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
50.0% (238)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Harkins
Hertl
P1
60.8%
53.6%
P2
45.1%
54.1%
P3
53.1%
55.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:19 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:30 | Offensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |