Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 53.7%). Look for Harkins on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 52.4% vs Nosek 53.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 55.9%
Defensive zone
Nosek 68.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 55.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Harkins
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Harkins
Nosek
Last 5: Harkins 4-1 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
0
Harkins
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Harkins
3
1
Harkins
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (403)
54.9% (2,674)
-3.8%
Power Play
80.0% (10)
44.7% (47)
+35.3%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (69)
47.4% (424)
+12.0%
On power play, Harkins has a +35.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Harkins is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (316).
Harkins shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Harkins
Nosek
Home
55.7% (244)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
50.0% (238)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Harkins
Nosek
P1
60.8%
52.3%
P2
45.1%
54.0%
P3
53.1%
54.6%
Final 5 min
50.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.9%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 01:29 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Jansen Harkins |