Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McCann wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 46.3% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCann 78.5%
Defensive zone
McCann 51.7%
Neutral zone
McCann 67.5%
Result
Jared McCann favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
McCann
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McCann
O'Reilly
Last 9: McCann 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McCann
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
McCann
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
McCann
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (428)
56.6% (1,064)
-10.6%
Power Play
39.3% (56)
60.4% (260)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
54.0% (261)
+8.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McCann is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (305).
McCann shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
McCann
O'Reilly
Home
45.1% (244)
54.9% (801)
Away
46.0% (248)
58.7% (784)
By Period
McCann
O'Reilly
P1
42.5%
58.0%
P2
45.9%
56.7%
P3
47.8%
55.4%
OT
40.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
48.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
45.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2022 | 1 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 09:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 14:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jared McCann |