Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 49.0%). Dickinson wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dickinson 63.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 56.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.1%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Dickinson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Dickinson
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Dickinson
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dickinson
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
51.7% (644)
+0.1%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
0.0% (2)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (150)
41.6% (221)
-2.9%
On power play, Dickinson has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Dickinson is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (260).
Dickinson shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Dowd
Home
48.7% (419)
48.6% (451)
Away
50.4% (383)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Dickinson
Dowd
P1
42.6%
49.1%
P2
55.0%
47.3%
P3
50.0%
51.4%
OT
60.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |