Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dickinson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dickinson wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 48.0% vs Sturm 55.2% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dickinson 64.5%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 54.0%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 54.6%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Dickinson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dickinson
Sturm
Last 5: Dickinson 2-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Dickinson
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
2
1
Dickinson
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Dickinson
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (626)
56.1% (716)
-7.5%
Power Play
44.0% (25)
67.7% (31)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (120)
51.1% (133)
-6.9%
On power play, Sturm has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dickinson is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Dickinson shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Sturm
Home
45.4% (368)
55.6% (412)
Away
49.9% (403)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Dickinson
Sturm
P1
49.2%
59.6%
P2
46.3%
52.0%
P3
48.1%
55.5%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▬
54.5%
47.7%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:17 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |