Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Henrique wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 44.9% vs Spezza 53.7% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 76.6%
Defensive zone
Henrique 68.7%
Neutral zone
Henrique 69.6%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Henrique
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Henrique
Spezza
Last 7: Henrique 1-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Henrique
Spezza
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
4
Henrique
Spezza
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Henrique
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (656)
53.9% (1,097)
-10.1%
Power Play
44.7% (152)
54.8% (250)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (110)
52.8% (89)
-5.5%
On even strength, Spezza has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Henrique is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Henrique shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,020).
Home / Away
Henrique
Spezza
Home
45.3% (422)
55.8% (695)
Away
43.5% (496)
52.2% (741)
By Period
Henrique
Spezza
P1
44.3%
50.3%
P2
44.1%
54.7%
P3
45.5%
56.0%
OT
26.7%
73.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
44.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2013 | 3 | 03:02 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 11:40 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 2 | 17:37 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 2 | 14:03 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |