Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Carter 48.8% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 76.7%
Defensive zone
Spezza 52.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 73.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Spezza
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Spezza
Carter
Last 7: Spezza 5-2 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Carter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
48.5% (977)
+4.7%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
57.8% (128)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
40.7% (123)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Spezza is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Spezza shoots right. Carter is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carter
Home
57.5% (518)
50.8% (597)
Away
51.8% (463)
46.8% (631)
By Period
Spezza
Carter
P1
55.4%
48.8%
P2
54.1%
48.0%
P3
55.5%
49.4%
OT
25.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
59.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 02:06 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 3 | 08:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 2 | 07:35 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 2 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2016 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |