Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Carter 53.2% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 26-18 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 58.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 59.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 50.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Spezza
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
26
(44 meetings)
18
26
Spezza
Carter
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
7
10
Spezza
Carter
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
5
8
Spezza
Carter
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
6
8
Spezza
Carter
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
53.3% (8,728)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
57.3% (1,554)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
46.3% (1,087)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carter
Home
56.8% (5,066)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Spezza
Carter
P1
55.7%
53.6%
P2
54.4%
52.8%
P3
54.1%
53.1%
OT
51.5%
56.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 12:13 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 11:46 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 01:16 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 1 | 11:35 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 1 | 01:27 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 9, 2017 | 1 | 07:20 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 9, 2017 | 1 | 06:03 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 08:40 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |