Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Boqvist shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Boqvist 39.6% (+15.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 94.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 81.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 90.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
Spezza
Boqvist
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Spezza
Boqvist
Last 10: Spezza 8-2 Boqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Boqvist
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Boqvist
1
2
Spezza
Boqvist
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
0
Spezza
Boqvist
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Boqvist
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
36.6% (432)
+17.1%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
50.0% (14)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
75.0% (4)
-36.8%
On penalty kill, Boqvist has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Boqvist shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Boqvist is 32.3% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
Spezza
Boqvist
Home
55.0% (282)
36.3% (182)
Away
50.8% (295)
38.1% (268)
By Period
Spezza
Boqvist
P1
53.1%
35.2%
P2
53.2%
40.4%
P3
52.3%
36.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
36.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Boqvist
32.0%▼
39.0%
37.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 15:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:13 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 03:57 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 02:38 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |